# Kopecky-Taylor Murder-Suicide Summary

The 'murder-suicide of the rentier' predicts aging depresses safe returns (large negative Z₁) while sustaining/increasing the equity risk premium (small/null Z₁ on equity).

| Asset Class | Z₁ (std) | p-value | Z₂ (std) | p-value | N | R² |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe rate (10y) | 14.720** | 0.0154 | -1.559* | 0.0514 | 803 | 0.108 |
| Safe rate (3m) | 18.141*** | 0.0043 | -2.118** | 0.0120 | 813 | 0.005 |
| Term spread | -5.829 | 0.3567 | 0.809 | 0.3345 | 781 | 0.113 |
| REER (log) | -3.426 | 0.3069 | 0.429 | 0.3580 | 1572 | 0.028 |
| REER (Δ%) | -2.006 | 0.2856 | 0.323 | 0.2166 | 1540 | 0.026 |
| House prices (Δ%) | 0.923 | 0.6252 | -0.176 | 0.4979 | 1499 | 0.005 |
| Stock mkt cap/GDP | 0.265 | 0.9203 | 0.028 | 0.9412 | 779 | 0.180 |
| Portfolio equity/GDP | -4.861*** | 0.0000 | 0.790*** | 0.0000 | 5435 | 0.048 |
| Carry vs USA | -3.102 | 0.4955 | 0.342 | 0.5721 | 813 | 0.448 |

*Dependent variables standardized (mean=0, sd=1). PanelGLS with AR(1). Controls: GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, KAOPEN, NFA/GDP lag.*